비트코인의 4년 주기 반감기는 암호화폐 시장에서 가장 중요한 사이클입니다. 역대 반감기는 모두 대형 강세장으로 이어졌습니다.
바이낸스 가입 앱 다운로드| Halving | Price | Peak (1yr later) | Max Gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2012 | ~$13 | ~$1,150 | +8,750% |
| Jul 2016 | ~$650 | ~$19,800 | +2,946% |
| May 2020 | ~$9,000 | ~$69,000 | +667% |
| Apr 2024 | ~$63,000 | Rising | Ongoing |
Supply cut in half: Daily new BTC issuance drops 50%. With demand unchanged, basic economics pushes prices higher.
Miner cost doubles: Cost per BTC mined increases, reducing sell pressure from miners.
Institutional capital (new in 2024): US spot Bitcoin ETFs bring sustained buying from BlackRock, Fidelity and others — unprecedented in previous cycles.
The 4th halving completed April 2024. Based on historical patterns, the strongest bull phase runs 12-18 months post-halving. By 2026, markets may be in a late bull stage or consolidation phase.
Key strategy: Build BTC/ETH core positions on dips, keep 20%+ in stable assets as dry powder, avoid chasing tops.